nFN Suaydhi


Indonesian region often experiences hydrometeorological disasters such as floods and landslides. To mitigate the losses from such disasters, an early warning system is needed. PSTA LAPAN has developed an early warning system called SADEWA (Satellite Disaster Early Warning System). The performance of this early warning system needs to be evaluated in order to increase the confidence level. The evaluation of the WRF performance in producing the prediction was carried out by analyzing the diurnal cycles of rainfall over Java and its surroundings using the results of WRF predictions implemented in SADEWA and GSMaP data for one year period (Maret 2014 – Februari 2015). The contrasting diurnal cycles between Java island and its surrounding seas could be well simulated by the WRF model, both the amount and the frequency of the rainfall. However, the phase of diurnal cycle from the WRF prediction leads that of the observation by two hours and the amplitude of the simulated diurnal cycle is higher than the observed. The results also show that the WRF predictions could not simulate the effects of MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) on the diurnal cycles of rainfall over Java.



Wilayah Indonesia sering mengalami bencana hidrometeorologi seperti banjir dan tanah longsor. Untuk mengurangi kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh kejadian bencana meteorologi diperlukan suatu sistem peringatan dini. PSTA LAPAN telah mengembangkan sebuah sistem peringatan dini yang diberi nama SADEWA (Satellite Disaster Early Warning System). Kinerja sistem peringatan dini seperti ini perlu dievaluasi agar tingkat kepercayaannya meningkat. Evaluasi kinerja hasil prediksi ini dilakukan dengan menganalisis siklus diurnal curah hujan di pulau Jawa dan sekitarnya pada data hasil prediksi WRF yang digunakan dalam SADEWA dan data GSMaP selama satu tahun (Maret 2014 – Februari 2015). Siklus diurnal curah hujan yang kontras antara pulau Jawa dengan lautan sekitarnya mampu disimulasikan dengan baik oleh model WRF, baik dari jumlah maupun frekuensi curah hujannya. Namun fasa diurnal dari hasil prediksi WRF mendahului fasa data pengamatan sekitar dua jam dan mempunyai amplitudo lebih besar. Hasil analisis juga menunjukkan hasil prediksi WRF belum mampu mensimulasikan pengaruh MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) pada siklus diurnal curah hujan di Jawa.


curah hujan; siklus diurnal; Jawa; MJO; rainfall; diurnal cycle; Java

Full Text:



Bappenas, and BNPB, 2010: Rencana Aksi Nasional Pengurangan Risiko Bencana 2010 - 2012. 363 pp.

Bhatt, B. C., S. Sobolowski, and H. Atsushi, 2016: Simulation of Diurnal Rainfall Variability over the Maritime Continent with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 94A, 89103, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-052.

Casati, B., G. Ross, and D. B. Stephenson, 2004: A new intensity-scale approach for the verification of spatial precipitation forecasts. Meteorol. Appl., 11, 141154, doi:10.1017/S1350482704001239.

Chang, C.-P., Z. Wang, J. Ju, and T. Li, 2004: On the Relationship between Western Maritime Continent Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO during Northern Winter. J. Clim., 17, 665672.

Dee, D. P., and Coauthors, 2011: The ERA-Interim reanalysis : configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.

Hidayat, R., and S. Kizu, 2010: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Indonesian rainfall variability in austral summer. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 18161825.

Ichikawa, H., and T. Yasunari, 2006: Time Space Characteristics of Diurnal Rainfall over Borneo and Surrounding Oceans as Observed by TRMM-PR. J. Clim., 19, 12381260.

, and , 2008: Intraseasonal Variability in Diurnal Rainfall over New Guinea and the Surrounding Oceans during Austral Summer. J. Clim., 21, 28522868, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1784.1.

Lee, H. S., 2015: General Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia and the Potential Impacts of Local Seas on Rainfall Intensity. Water, 7, 17511768, doi:10.3390/w7041751.

Qian, J.-H., and A. W. Robertson, 2010: Interactions among ENSO , the Monsoon , and Diurnal Cycle in Rainfall Variability over Java , Indonesia. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 35093524, doi:10.1175/2010JAS3348.1.

Rauniyar, S. P., and K. J. E. Walsh, 2011: Scale Interaction of the Diurnal Cycle of Rainfall over the Maritime Continent and Australia : Influence of the MJO. J. Clim., 24, 325348, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3673.1.

Saito, K., T. Keenan, G. Holland, and K. Puri, 2001: Numerical Simulation of the Diurnal Evolution of Tropical Island Convection over the Maritime Continent. Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 378400.

Sakurai, N., F. Murata, and M. D. Yamanaka, 2005: Diurnal Cycle of Cloud System Migration over Sumatera Island. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 83, 835850.

Shin, D. W., S. Cocke, and T. E. Larow, 2007: Diurnal cycle of precipitation in a climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 112, 111, doi:10.1029/2006JD008333.

Slingo, J., and T. N. Palmer, 2011: Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction. Philos. Trans. A. Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 369, 47514767, doi:10.1098/rsta.2011.0161.

, P. Inness, R. Neale, S. Woolnough, and G. Yang, 2003: Scale interactions on diurnal to seasonal timescales and their relevance to model systematic errors. Annu. Geophys., 46, 139155.

Sun, Y., S. Solomon, and A. Dai, 2006: How Often Does It Rain ? J. Clim., 19, 916934.

Teo, C.-K., T.-Y. Koh, J. C.-F. Lo, and B. C. Bhatt, 2011: Principal Component Analysis of Observed and Modeled Diurnal Rainfall in the Maritime Continent. J. Clim., 24, 46624675, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4047.1.

Tian, B., D. E. Waliser, and E. J. Fetzer, 2006: Modulation of the diurnal cycle of tropical deep convective clouds by the MJO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, 16, doi:10.1029/2006GL027752.

Ushio, T., and Coauthors, 2009: A Kalman Filter Approach to the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation ( GSMaP ) from Combined Passive Microwave and Infrared Radiometric Data. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 87A, 137151, doi:10.2151/jmsj.87A.137.

Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An All-Season Real-Time Multivariate MJO Index : Development of an Index for Monitoring and Prediction. Mon. Weather Rev., 132, 19171932.


  • There are currently no refbacks.