ANALISIS PREKURSOR PERISTIWA FLARE/PELONTARAN MASSA KORONA DALAM RANGKA PERINGATAN DINI CUACA ANTARIKSA (THE ANALYSIS OF FLARE/CORONAL MASS EJECTION PRECURSORS RELATED TO THE SPACE WEATHER EARLY WARNING)

Agustinus Gunawan Admiranto, Nanang Widodo, Iyus Edi Rusnadi, Heri Sutastio, Dasimun Dasimun

Abstract

Based on active regions dynamics we analyzed the precursors of flare/coronal mass ejections. From the assumption that the energy of coronal mass ejection/flare are from magnetic energy conversion that can be deducted from the changes of sunspots area we analyzed some active regions which produced flare/CME to identify the area changes before the occurrence of the event. We found that in general the sunspots area decreased before the flare/CME occurred, so it is concluded that the decrease of sunspots area can be used as precursors of flare/CME.

 

ABSTRAK

Dengan melihat dinamika daerah aktif dilakukan analisis prekursor fenomena flare/ pelontaran massa korona (CME). Dengan asumsi bahwa energi pelontaran massa korona berasal dari konversi energi magnet yang dilihat dari perubahan luas harian bintik Matahari maka dilakukan analisis perubahan luas harian bintik Matahari pada beberapa daerah aktif yang menghasilkan flare dan atau CME untuk melihat bagaimana luas daerah-daerah tersebut berubah menjelang terjadinya fenomena flare/CME. Didapat bahwa secara umum luas bintik Matahari mengalami penurunan beberapa saat sebelum peristiwa flare/CME ini terjadi. Dari sini dapat disimpulkan bahwa penurunan luas Harian bintik Matahari bisa dijadikan precursor atau indikasi akan adanya peristiwa flare/CME.

Keywords

elontaranPerubahan luas bintik Matahari; Flare; P massa korona; Precursor; Sunspots area changes; Flare; Coronal mass ejection

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30536/j.jsd.2016.v13.a2940

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