MODEL ESTIMASI PELUNCURAN SATELIT INTERNASIONAL

Abstract

This research aims to determine the international satellite launch model. The researh includes determination of number of launch, number of satellite placed in orbit, regression line and correlation between number of launch and satellite that had been placed in its orbit, also satellite percentage failed on 1998 until 2003 period. To find the trend used the Least Square Statistics Method and to know how far the correlation between the number of launch and satellite, the coefficient of determination be counted. The result shows that trend become decrease of number of launch and the equation is Y = 71,5 - 2,5 X. The trend of number of satellite also become decrease Y = 115,66 - 8,26 X. Based on that trend, the estimation of number of launch and number of satellite become about 54 launch times and 56 satellite in 2004. That result has small deviation around 5% and 20% from the real launch in 2004. While the regrission line between the number of launch and satellite is Y = 65,72 + 0,05 X and correlation very strong which is r = 0,89 and cd = 0,792. This result shows that 79,2% of number of satellite placed in orbit will be influence to number of launch along 1998 until 2003 period.