IDENTIFIKASI MODEL INDEKS K GEOMAGNET BERDASARKAN SIFAT STOKASTIK

Abstract

Geomagnetic K index that expressing magnetic disturbance level at earth's magnetic field as effect of disturbances such as flare activity of the sun as well as from earth's magnetic field activity such as earthquake. Precipitation in the magnetic field causes turbulence i.e. random motion at magnetic field force line. Therefore K index becomes very complex, fluctuated or stochastic. With this condition, identification model has to be made by using the reconstructed K index by smoothing. Reconstructing an index K data through this smoothing represents one of method to clarify data pattern of index to K which still vaguely. Afterwards analysis to identify reconstructed K index model by using time series analysis based on ARMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average).Reconstructed empirical model of K index of geomagnetic follows model of ARMA (2.2) 2 and 2 order of difference. The result of the model have good enough accuracy with correlation coefficient nearly one, error is 0.133, and model efficiency 99.7 percent. The obtained accurate model can be used to predict reconstructed geomagnetic K index some steps foreward