ROLLING MOSAIC METHOD TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIAL FISHING ZONE FORECASTING FOR COASTAL AREAS

Abstract

The production of the Indonesian Institute for Marine Research and Observation’s mapping of forecast fishing areas (peta prakiraan daerah penangkapan ikan or PPDPI) based on passive satellite imagery is often constrained by high-cloud-cover issues, which lead to sub-optimal results. This study examines the use of the rolling mosaic method for providing geophysical variables, in particular, seasurface temperature (STT) together with minimum cloud cover, to enable clearer identification of oceanographic conditions. The analysis was carried out in contrasting seasons: dry season in July 2018 and rainy season in December 2018. In general, the rolling mosaic method is able to reduce cloud cover for sea-surface temperature (SST) data. A longer time range will increase the coverage percentage (CP) of SST data. In July, the CP of SST data increased significantly, from 15.3 % to 30.29% for the reference 1D mosaic and up to 84.19 % to 89.07% for the 14D mosaic. In contrast, the CP of SST data in December tended to be lower, from 4.93 % to 13.03% in the 1D mosaic to 41.48 % to 51.60% in the14D mosaic. However, the longer time range decreases the relationship between the reference SST data and rolling mosaic method data. A strong relationship lies between the 1D mosaic and 3D mosaics, with correlation coefficients of 0.984 for July and 0.945 for December. Furthermore, a longer time range will decrease root mean square error (RMSE) values. In July, RMSE decreased from 0.288°C (3D mosaic) to 0.471°C (14D mosaic). The RMSE value in December decreased from 0.387°C (3D mosaic) to 0.477°C (14D mosaic). Based on scoring analysis of CP, correlation coefficient and RMSE value, results indicate that the 7D mosaic method is useful for providing low-cloud-coverage SST data for PPDPI production in the dry season, while the 14D mosaic method is suitable for the rainy season.